Unforseen Risk and Planning Perspectives

In the traditional methodology of risk management, a widely accepted practice is to seek rational means to maneuver anticipated risks in a rational way while excluding uncertain events whose probabilities are sufficiently low. The extensive damage caused by the Great East Japan Earthquake revealed the ineffectiveness of existing views on risk management in the area of unforeseen risk. Based on the assumption that all planning and analysis activities are impossible without prior anticipation, this paper presents basic views on the philosophy of risk analysis and its ability to transcend the wall of cognition. In addition, based on the viewpoint of post-positivism, this paper examines the risk communication that occurs between experts and non-experts. It also recommends goals that risk analysis should strive for. Finally, it highlights practical issues that might occur in infrastructure planning and examines challenges inherent in infrastructure planning and management.